U.S. Senate (AK)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Mary Peltola 68%, Dan Sullivan 32%.
The race in 60 seconds
- The 2026 Alaska Senate race is a toss-up contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola.
- Sullivan is a senior legislator with strong establishment backing, while Peltola is running a well-funded, grassroots-focused campaign.
- The election occurs in a state that has historically favored Republican candidates, though it has seen recent volatility in voter margins.
Can they win this race
Despite a significant fundraising advantage and strong national backing, the incumbent's solid standing in a state that consistently favors Republican candidates suggests they remain the favorite to hold the seat.
Who's lining up behind each side
While both candidates have deep institutional support, the incumbent's broad coalition of local business and political leaders likely provides a more durable foundation for turnout than the challenger's labor-led operation.
What could go wrong
The multiple allegations of staff misconduct against Mary Peltola represent a more significant and unpredictable liability than the incumbent's single confirmed ethical or legal incident.
Who fits the moment
The incumbent's traditional Republican profile is better aligned with the state's conservative voting history than the challenger's attempt to bridge the gap between Democratic party platform and state economic interests.
Money
Excludes $1,713,088.79 from 7,140 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $6,693,742.55 from 27,303 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
supports resource development; opposes federal energy restrictions
pro-development; supports reducing costs for energy and housing
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| Issue | Dan Sullivan | Mary Peltola |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportssupports resource development; opposes federal energy restrictions | Supportspro-development; supports reducing costs for energy and housing |
| Healthcare | Mixedsupports rural health funding; mixed record on ACA subsidies | Supportssupports extending Obamacare subsidies and reversing Medicaid cuts |
| Abortion and social issues | Opposesopposes same-sex marriage and path to citizenship | Supportssupports abortion access and codifying Roe v. Wade |
| Democracy and elections | Opposesopposes ranked-choice voting; alleges opponent name-sharing is cheating | Supportsfocuses on Alaska-specific interests, rejecting national party endorsements |
| Immigration and border | Opposessupports border security; opposes current administration policies | Supportssupports border security while opposing deportation of Alaska Natives |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supportssupports military buildup; views China as primary threat | Opposessupports War Powers Act to limit unilateral presidential war decisions |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 42.7% | 57.3% | R+14.6 | 55.8% |
| 2024 | House | 48.8% | 51.2% | R+2.4 | 55.8% |
| 2022 | Governor | 24.2% | 50.3% | R+26.1 | 44.4% |
| 2022 | House | 55.0% | 45.0% | D+9.9 | 44.4% |
| 2020 | President | 44.8% | 55.2% | R+10.4 | 60.7% |