U.S. Senate (MI)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Abdul El-Sayed 73%, Mike Rogers 29%.
The race in 60 seconds
- This Michigan Senate race is a toss-up that will likely decide which party controls the chamber.
- Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is running as a progressive populist, while Republican Mike Rogers is a former congressman campaigning on conservative principles.
- Both candidates are backed by massive amounts of outside spending, signaling that national groups view this as a must-win contest.
Can they win this race
Abdul El-Sayed holds a slight edge due to his fundraising advantage and a candidate pool that favors a Democratic-leaning electorate, though the narrow polling suggests the outcome remains highly sensitive to turnout.
Who's lining up behind each side
Mike Rogers holds a material advantage in institutional spending, but El-Sayed's ability to activate volunteers gives him a more resilient ground game in a high-turnout election.
What could go wrong
El-Sayed’s struggle to unify his own party’s primary voters poses a more immediate threat to his ceiling than Rogers's past electoral performance.
Who fits the moment
El-Sayed’s profile is a stronger fit for the state's historical voting patterns, though Rogers's economic focus creates a clear path for him to win over swing-leaning workers.
Money
Excludes $2,752,906.44 from 15,316 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $3,839,197.5 from 116,330 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
supports regulated capitalism, antitrust enforcement, and wealth tax
proposes suspending gas taxes and halting diesel exports
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| Issue | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportssupports regulated capitalism, antitrust enforcement, and wealth tax | Supportsproposes suspending gas taxes and halting diesel exports |
| Healthcare | Supportssupports Medicare for All; acknowledges tax increases | Opposesopposes Medicare for All; supports Medicaid work requirements |
| Abortion and social issues | Mixedapologized for comments on synagogue attack; condemns antisemitism | Supportssupports Michigan Constitution's established reproductive rights status |
| Democracy and elections | Supportsrejects corporate PAC money; calls system corrupt | Shiftingdistancing from Trump's 2020 election denialism rhetoric |
| Immigration and border | Supportsadvocates for abolishing ICE; calls it paramilitary force | Supportssupports border wall and strict enforcement strategies |
| Foreign policy and defense | Opposescritical of Israel; opposes US military interventionism | Shiftingcalls for ending Iran conflict to lower energy costs |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 49.3% | 50.7% | R+1.4 | 77.9% |
| 2024 | House | 48.0% | 48.8% | R+0.8 | 77.9% |
| 2022 | Governor | 54.5% | 43.9% | D+10.5 | 55.2% |
| 2022 | House | 49.8% | 47.6% | D+2.2 | 55.2% |
| 2020 | President | 51.9% | 48.1% | D+3.8 | 71.0% |