U.S. Senate (OH)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Sherrod Brown 60%, Jon Husted 40%.
The race in 60 seconds
- This race for an open U.S. Senate seat is considered a toss-up and a key battleground for control of the Senate.
- Incumbent Jon Husted was appointed to the seat after J.D. Vance resigned and is now running to keep it.
- Former Senator Sherrod Brown is attempting to win back the seat after losing his most recent election.
Can they win this race
Despite trailing in current polling and facing a historically Republican-leaning electorate, Brown’s massive three-to-one fundraising advantage and strong institutional coalition provide a viable path to retaining this critical seat.
Who's lining up behind each side
Brown’s deeper integration with established unions and widespread small-donor network is better positioned to turn institutional backing into actual turnout compared to Husted's reliance on outside PAC spending.
What could go wrong
Husted’s history of formal corruption testimony and staff turnover represents a more significant, long-term liability for voters than Brown's conflicting donor disclosures.
Who fits the moment
While Husted attempts to pivot toward suburban moderates, Brown’s consistent focus on working-class economic issues aligns more effectively with the state's established political identity.
Money
Excludes $3,202,607.36 from 34,570 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $15,054,163.28 from 110,332 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Shifted from supporting to opposing data center tax breaks.
opposes corporate tax breaks and Wall Street influence
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| Issue | Jon Husted | Sherrod Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | ShiftingShifted from supporting to opposing data center tax breaks. | Opposesopposes corporate tax breaks and Wall Street influence |
| Healthcare | OpposesOpposes ACA; supports market-based healthcare reforms. | Supportssupports ACA, drug price caps, and insurance regulation |
| Abortion and social issues | SupportsPro-life; opposes gender-affirming care for minors. | Supportssupports reproductive rights and codifying Roe v. Wade |
| Democracy and elections | SupportsAppointed incumbent; trailing in polls; facing fundraising deficit. | Shiftingchallenger seeking to regain seat lost in 2024 election |
| Immigration and border | SupportsSupports strict border enforcement and ending 'drive-only' licenses. | Supportssupports border security resources and targeted enforcement measures |
| Foreign policy and defense | SupportsCalls for ending Iran conflict to lower gas prices. | Opposesopposes war with Iran and advocates for diplomatic restraint |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 44.9% | 55.1% | R+10.2 | 71.7% |
| 2024 | House | 43.4% | 56.6% | R+13.1 | 71.7% |
| 2022 | Governor | 37.4% | 62.4% | R+25.0 | 52.3% |
| 2022 | House | 43.6% | 56.4% | R+12.9 | 52.3% |
| 2020 | President | 45.2% | 54.8% | R+9.6 | 74.0% |