U.S. Senate (TX)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. James Talarico 63%, Ken Paxton 37%.
The race in 60 seconds
- This Texas Senate race is a toss-up between Democratic state legislator James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
- Talarico is running a heavily funded campaign focused on progressive populism and outreach to diverse voter groups.
- Paxton is leaning into his hardline conservative record and his alignment with the MAGA movement to maintain Republican control.
Can they win this race
Despite the massive financial advantage and national support for James Talarico, the historical tendency of Texas to elect Republicans by double digits makes his victory a significant uphill climb.
Who's lining up behind each side
Talarico's superior volunteer infrastructure and broader institutional coalition provide a more reliable engine for translating campaign resources into voter turnout than Paxton's localized approach.
What could go wrong
Paxton's long-standing history of legal and ethical scandals poses the most significant risk of suppressing his own base or alienating independent voters before election day.
Who fits the moment
Paxton’s rigid ideological alignment with the state's recent Republican electoral successes better reflects the core preferences of the current Texas electorate than Talarico’s progressive platform.
Money
Excludes $16,142,036.59 from 105,113 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $3,996,254.1 from 12,497 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
advocates closing billionaire tax loopholes and banning super PACs
proposes tax cuts, deficit reduction, and deregulation
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| Issue | James Talarico | Ken Paxton |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportsadvocates closing billionaire tax loopholes and banning super PACs | Supportsproposes tax cuts, deficit reduction, and deregulation |
| Healthcare | Supportssupports Medicare expansion and breaking up large healthcare companies | Opposesseeks to replace ACA, emphasizes doctor-patient relationship |
| Abortion and social issues | Mixedopposes gender-affirming surgery for minors; mixed on trans sports | Supportsenforces anti-abortion laws, opposes late-term abortions |
| Democracy and elections | Opposesrefuses corporate PAC money; criticizes billionaire influence in politics | Avoidsavoids debates, dismisses impeachment as political retribution |
| Immigration and border | Mixedsupports border security, asylum reform, and legal pathways for workers | Supportsprioritizes border wall, deportation, and anti-illegal immigration measures |
| Foreign policy and defense | Mixedsupports conditioning military aid to Israel; opposes offensive weapons sales | Supportsprioritizes America First agenda and confronting China |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 44.3% | 55.7% | R+11.4 | 61.1% |
| 2024 | House | 40.4% | 58.4% | R+18.0 | 61.1% |
| 2022 | Governor | 43.9% | 54.8% | R+10.9 | 45.9% |
| 2022 | House | 38.7% | 58.8% | R+20.1 | 45.9% |
| 2020 | President | 46.5% | 53.5% | R+7.0 | 66.7% |