U.S. Senate (ME)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Troy Jackson 58%, Susan Collins 41%.
The race in 60 seconds
- This race for a Maine Senate seat is considered a toss-up and is a top target for Democrats hoping to flip the seat.
- Incumbent Susan Collins is running on a platform of bipartisan seniority, while challenger Troy Jackson is a labor-focused former state official.
- Public polls show the race is very close, with recent numbers indicating a statistical dead heat between the two candidates.
Can they win this race
Despite the incumbent's massive fundraising advantage, the state's consistent Democratic-leaning presidential and house results create a path for Jackson to bridge the narrow polling gap.
Who's lining up behind each side
The incumbent's established network of institutional support and substantial outside funding provides a more stable foundation for voter mobilization than Jackson's nascent labor-based coalition.
What could go wrong
Susan Collins' resilience against past ethics allegations suggests her voters may be more forgiving of established controversies than those facing the untested and inconsistent Troy Jackson.
Who fits the moment
Susan Collins' reputation for seniority and bipartisanship better aligns with the preferences of the moderate, independent voters necessary to win in this consistently Democratic-leaning state.
Money
Excludes $4,203,229.25 from 12,797 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Opposes tariffs on Canada; prioritizes economic needs over politics.
opposes corporate PAC money; supports labor and tax reform
1 of 6
| Issue | Susan Collins | Troy Jackson |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | OpposesOpposes tariffs on Canada; prioritizes economic needs over politics. | Supportsopposes corporate PAC money; supports labor and tax reform |
| Healthcare | OpposesOpposed OBBBA due to Medicaid concerns; supports rural healthcare. | Supportssupports Medicare for All and drug price negotiation |
| Abortion and social issues | MixedPro-choice; voted to confirm Kavanaugh, later expressed disappointment. | Supportssupports abortion access; renounced past anti-abortion positions |
| Democracy and elections | AvoidsDenies corruption allegations; emphasizes record as incumbent. | Supportscampaigns as outsider; opposes current Democratic leadership |
| Immigration and border | MixedSupports ICE funding but advocates for body cameras/oversight. | Opposesadvocates for abolishing ICE; criticizes enforcement agency actions |
| Foreign policy and defense | SupportsSupports strong U.S.-Canada relations; opposes trade war. | Opposesopposes unconditional military aid to Israel; labels actions genocide |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 53.1% | 46.9% | D+6.2 | 74.2% |
| 2024 | House | 54.7% | 42.8% | D+11.9 | 74.2% |
| 2022 | Governor | 55.7% | 42.5% | D+13.2 | 59.5% |
| 2022 | House | 58.2% | 41.8% | D+16.5 | 59.5% |
| 2020 | President | 54.1% | 45.9% | D+8.2 | 72.7% |