U.S. Senate (AR)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
13 days until the next FEC filing deadline.
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Hallie Shoffner 7%, Tom Cotton 93%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Tom Cotton is a two-term incumbent and high-ranking Senate leader seeking reelection in a heavily Republican state.
- Hallie Shoffner is a newcomer and former farmer who is campaigning as a Democrat to represent the state in the Senate.
- Recent polling shows a competitive race, but the incumbent maintains a massive fundraising lead of roughly six to one.
Can they win this race
Despite recent polling, the massive funding disparity and deep-seated local Republican history make the challenger's path to victory functionally blocked.
Who's lining up behind each side
Tom Cotton’s coalition is stronger because it couples national-level political backing with specialized funding support that directly targets his base.
What could go wrong
The multiple allegations against Hallie Shoffner present a more persistent distraction than the single informal complaint against Tom Cotton.
Who fits the moment
Tom Cotton’s leadership profile and conservative policy priorities are a much better fit for the state’s demonstrated political preferences than the challenger’s platform.
Money
Excludes $748,646.69 from 3,374 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $1,468,263.75 from 15,778 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
pledges tax cuts for blue-collar workers, not land barons
Supports tax cuts, deregulation, and targeted fiscal incentives.
1 of 6
| Issue | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportspledges tax cuts for blue-collar workers, not land barons | SupportsSupports tax cuts, deregulation, and targeted fiscal incentives. |
| Healthcare | Supportspledges to restore Medicaid and protect Social Security/Medicare | OpposesVoted to repeal ACA; supports targeted cybersecurity medical legislation. |
| Abortion and social issues | Mixedstates states should decide; warns of medical access risks | OpposesOpposes abortion; opposes CRT and transgender athletes in sports. |
| Democracy and elections | Supportscampaigns as a new voice challenging a rigged system | SupportsSupports election integrity reforms; declined recent public debates. |
| Immigration and border | Mixedadvocates for reform; controversial remarks on labor ethics | SupportsSupports zero illegal immigration; advocates for merit-based system. |
| Foreign policy and defense | Opposescriticizes incumbent for prioritizing foreign spending over domestic needs | SupportsHawkish on China/Iran; prioritizes national security and sovereignty. |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 33.6% | 64.2% | R+30.6 | 65.1% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 35.2% | 63.0% | R+27.8 | 50.8% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 34.8% | 62.4% | R+27.6 | 66.9% |