The person-based edge your desk didn’t have.
The market prices outcomes while we price the people who cause them.
Iran · what happens next · most likely of 4 scenarios
- KKalshi38%our read +14
- PPolymarket41%our read +11
- 3 people profiled245 documented relationships
Mohammad Bagher Qalibafadversary
Benjamin Netanyahucounterpart
Donald Trumpally- 18,527 sourced facts in Netanyahu’s file alone181 publications
- 558 of them admitted by people it hurt to admit
- What moved this read most
- How each of them has behaved before0.32
- Where each stands on the live issues0.27
Sharper distributions on person-driven events.
When an outcome hinges on a few key decision-makers - in today’s world tariff announcements, sanctions, wars - the edge comes from understanding those individuals’ preferences and tendencies, not just the process. Conspectus profiles give you that qualitative layer in a structured, queryable form, so your calibration gets tighter exactly where it matters most.
Sam Altman
Elon Musk{
"pair_id": "altman__musk",
"as_of": "2026-08-02",
"confidence_tier": "Corroborated",
"power_balance": { "direction": "b_over_a",
"magnitude": "slight" },
"current_state": "Strong negative trajectory from
cooperative co-founders to full legal and
competitive adversaries over nine years.",
"transitions": [
{ "period": "2017-2018", "change": "Surface alliance
collapses; he departs the board." },
…
]
}The relationship map behind the trade.
Corporate action, M&A, and personnel moves ride on who trusts whom, who’s aligned, and who’s preempted deals before. Conspectus builds that network view across leaders, executives, and key investors, turning relationship intelligence you’d otherwise have to piece together yourself into a live, structured signal.
Always-on coverage for the events that only happen once.
Low-rep, high-impact situations reward whoever’s already done the homework. Conspectus continuously tracks the people and processes behind these moments, so when one hits, you’re stepping in with a profile already built, not starting from scratch.
Bring structured qualitative data around market makers into the equation.
Bring one live position or event to a 15-minute session with our team.
Talk to the team