U.S. Senate (CO)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. John Hickenlooper 99%, Mark Baisley 2%.
The race in 60 seconds
- John Hickenlooper is the incumbent U.S. Senator seeking re-election against Republican challenger Mark Baisley.
- The state has consistently supported Democratic presidential candidates by over 50% in the last two elections.
- Hickenlooper holds a massive financial lead, having raised over $10 million compared to Baisley’s roughly $138,000.
Can they win this race
Hickenlooper is essentially guaranteed to retain the seat given his massive fundraising advantage and the state’s consistent history of electing Democrats by double-digit margins.
Who's lining up behind each side
Hickenlooper’s institutional backing and financial firepower make him far more capable of reaching and mobilizing voters than Baisley.
What could go wrong
Hickenlooper’s formal ethics finding is the more significant vulnerability, though it is unlikely to displace his structural lead in this strongly Democratic state.
Who fits the moment
Hickenlooper’s moderate profile is much better aligned with the voting patterns of a state that consistently supports Democratic candidates by wide margins.
Money
Excludes $2,005,691.64 from 12,387 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $42,490.4 from 38 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Supports targeted federal investment; opposes corporate tax cuts.
advocates tax cuts, deregulation, and energy dominance
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| Issue | John Hickenlooper | Mark Baisley |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | SupportsSupports targeted federal investment; opposes corporate tax cuts. | Supportsadvocates tax cuts, deregulation, and energy dominance |
| Healthcare | SupportsSupports ACA expansion and public option; opposes single-payer. | Supportsfavors market-based reforms, price transparency, and HSAs |
| Abortion and social issues | SupportsProtects abortion access; opposes bans and restrictions. | Opposesopposes abortion access and LGBTQ+ civil rights protections |
| Democracy and elections | SupportsSupports campaign finance reform; record includes ethics violations. | Supportsswitched from governor to Senate race; secured GOP nomination |
| Immigration and border | OpposesDemands ICE overhaul; opposes mass deportation and wall. | Supportssupports strict vetting, assimilation, and deportation of undocumented immigrants |
| Foreign policy and defense | OpposesOpposes unauthorized military action; emphasizes congressional oversight. | Supportssupports aggressive stance against Iran and military support |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 55.8% | 44.2% | D+11.6 | 79.8% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 59.3% | 39.2% | D+20.1 | 66.3% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 56.9% | 43.1% | D+13.8 | 86.9% |