U.S. Senate (FL)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Angie Nixon 10%, Ashley Moody 90%.
The race in 60 seconds
- This race features incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ashley Moody against Democratic challenger Angie Nixon.
- Florida is a state that has consistently favored Republicans in recent statewide elections by double-digit margins.
- Ashley Moody holds a commanding 12-to-1 fundraising lead over Angie Nixon.
Can they win this race
Ashley Moody’s massive financial advantage and backing from state party leadership effectively neutralize the narrow polling gap, leaving the incumbent as the overwhelming favorite to hold the seat.
Who's lining up behind each side
Ashley Moody’s professional political and financial network will likely produce more reliable voter turnout compared to Angie Nixon’s reliance on volunteer-driven outreach.
What could go wrong
Angie Nixon’s personal history of criminal charges and ethics reprimands presents a significantly higher obstacle to electoral viability than Ashley Moody’s policy-focused transparency concerns.
Who fits the moment
Ashley Moody’s alignment with the established conservative direction of Florida, as evidenced by the state's large recent Republican victory margins, makes her profile a stronger fit for the seat.
Money
Excludes $2,459,755.93 from 15,370 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $131,921.86 from 356 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Promotes tax cuts and reducing government regulations.
populist; supports wealth tax and rent freezes
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| Issue | Ashley Moody | Angie Nixon |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | SupportsPromotes tax cuts and reducing government regulations. | Supportspopulist; supports wealth tax and rent freezes |
| Healthcare | MixedRecord of Medicaid settlement controversy and oversight criticism. | Supportssupports Medicare for All and ACA subsidy expansion |
| Abortion and social issues | OpposesOpposes abortion; challenged abortion-rights ballot initiatives. | Supportssupports abortion access; opposes restrictions and bans |
| Democracy and elections | OpposesRefused debates; supported 2020 election challenges. | Supportsgrassroots-focused; criticizes opponent's refusal to debate |
| Immigration and border | OpposesAggressively challenges federal immigration policies via lawsuits. | Opposessupports abolishing ICE; advocates for humane immigration reform |
| Foreign policy and defense | SupportsStrongly pro-Israel; supports military funding and anti-adversary policies. | Opposesopposes military aid to Israel; calls Gaza war genocide |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 44.2% | 56.1% | R+11.9 | 78.9% |
| 2024 | House | 42.0% | 57.9% | R+15.8 | 78.9% |
| 2022 | Governor | 40.0% | 59.4% | R+19.4 | 53.8% |
| 2022 | House | 39.6% | 58.3% | R+18.6 | 53.8% |
| 2020 | President | 47.9% | 51.2% | R+3.4 | 77.2% |