U.S. Senate (IA)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Josh Turek 42%, Ashley Hinson 60%.
The race in 60 seconds
- This open seat race is rated as a toss-up despite Iowa's history of leaning toward Republican candidates in recent presidential and state-level elections.
- Democrat Josh Turek is a former state legislator and Paralympian who focuses his campaign on rural economic issues and labor.
- Republican Ashley Hinson is a three-term U.S. Representative who highlights her experience and alignment with national party leadership.
Can they win this race
While the incumbent's party holds a historical registration and voting advantage in the state, the challenger's ability to compete in recent polling suggests the seat is currently decided by which side effectively turns out their base.
Who's lining up behind each side
Ashley Hinson's institutional support, combined with a decade-long track record of state-wide organizing, gives her a more reliable mechanism to convert party backing into turnout than her opponent.
What could go wrong
The most significant vulnerability is the potential for Ashley Hinson's donor profile to alienate the populist voters she needs, as it creates a direct contradiction with her campaign messaging.
Who fits the moment
Ashley Hinson's alignment with the state's established conservative voting pattern makes her a more natural fit for the electorate than her opponent's attempt to bridge the gap with populist themes.
Money
Excludes $1,703,658.53 from 6,282 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $3,008,265.4 from 63,732 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
supports grassroots funding; opposes corporate PAC contributions
opposes beef tariffs, supports suspending gas taxes
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| Issue | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportssupports grassroots funding; opposes corporate PAC contributions | Opposesopposes beef tariffs, supports suspending gas taxes |
| Healthcare | Supportssupports public option and protecting ACA subsidies | Supportssupports cancer research funding and insurance transparency |
| Abortion and social issues | Supportssupports codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law | Supportspro-life, supports 15-week ban with exceptions |
| Democracy and elections | Avoidsavoids association with Kamala Harris in campaign | Supportssupports congressional stock trading ban, works across aisle |
| Immigration and border | Supportssupports border security and immigration reform pathway | Supportsprioritizes border security and mass deportations |
| Foreign policy and defense | Opposesopposes ongoing military conflicts; advocates ending Iran war | Supportscalls for immediate end to war in Iran |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 43.0% | 57.0% | R+14.0 | 74.2% |
| 2024 | House | 43.2% | 56.2% | R+13.0 | 74.2% |
| 2022 | Governor | 39.5% | 58.0% | R+18.5 | 55.1% |
| 2022 | House | 43.5% | 55.9% | R+12.5 | 55.1% |
| 2020 | President | 45.7% | 54.3% | R+8.6 | 75.8% |