U.S. Senate (IL)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Juliana Stratton 98%, Don Tracy 2%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Juliana Stratton and Don Tracy are running to fill an open U.S. Senate seat in Illinois.
- Illinois has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent presidential and gubernatorial elections.
- Stratton leads in fundraising, having raised over $5.9 million compared to Tracy’s $2.4 million.
Can they win this race
While Don Tracy maintains an establishment network, the substantial fundraising gap and a political environment where voters have overwhelmingly rejected the presidential candidate of his party make a path to victory for him highly unlikely.
Who's lining up behind each side
Stratton’s mobilization strategy is more likely to convert into votes because it combines significant institutional financial support with an active, coordinated ground-level field operation.
What could go wrong
Don Tracy’s record of losing prior statewide campaigns combined with a formal ethics-committee finding makes his personal track record the most significant liability in this contest.
Who fits the moment
Stratton’s ideology is more consistent with the state’s demonstrated voting patterns, making her profile a much stronger match for the current electorate than Tracy's establishment-focused approach.
Money
Excludes $1,300,820.9 from 4,372 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $153,309.18 from 131 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
supports $25 minimum wage and tax hikes on the wealthy
prioritizes reducing inflation, taxes, and government regulation
1 of 6
| Issue | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportssupports $25 minimum wage and tax hikes on the wealthy | Supportsprioritizes reducing inflation, taxes, and government regulation |
| Healthcare | Supportssupports implementing a Medicare for All healthcare system | Opposesopposes socialized medicine; focuses on market-based price transparency |
| Abortion and social issues | Supportssupports codifying abortion and reproductive health services into law | Opposesopposes national ban; believes issue belongs to states |
| Democracy and elections | Supportssupports abolishing or significantly reforming the Senate filibuster | Supportssupports election integrity; advocates for two-party system checks |
| Immigration and border | Supportssupports abolishing ICE and withholding its funding | Supportssupports stricter enforcement and ending birthright citizenship |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supportssupports two-state solution; critical of Netanyahu's leadership | Supportssupports negotiated peace in Ukraine; prioritizes American interests |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 56.6% | 43.4% | D+13.2 | 70.4% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 54.9% | 42.4% | D+12.5 | 51.0% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 59.7% | 40.3% | D+19.4 | 72.1% |