U.S. Senate (LA)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
13 days until the next FEC filing deadline.
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Jamie Davis 8%, Julia Letlow 92%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Julia Letlow is the Republican candidate seeking to fill an open Senate seat in a state that consistently votes heavily for her party.
- Jamie Davis is the Democratic challenger who is attempting to overcome a large fundraising deficit and the state's Republican-leaning history.
- Letlow leads in recent polling by 4 points, supported by endorsements from party leaders like Donald Trump and Governor Jeff Landry.
Can they win this race
Letlow is strongly positioned to win given her significant financial lead and the state's long history of preferring Republican candidates by double-digit margins.
Who's lining up behind each side
Letlow's superior financial resources and support from high-profile political figures provide a more stable and effective mobilization infrastructure than Davis's volunteer-heavy effort.
What could go wrong
Letlow's failure to disclose stock trades poses the most significant risk, as it raises questions about her transparency and integrity with voters.
Who fits the moment
Letlow’s conservative, establishment-aligned identity is a far more natural fit for Louisiana's strongly Republican political environment than Davis’s progressive platform.
Money
Excludes $759,948.39 from 447 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $174,448.76 from 1,399 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
prioritizes energy deregulation, farm bills, and economic growth
supports raising minimum wage and reversing 2025 tax cuts
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| Issue | Julia Letlow | Jamie Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportsprioritizes energy deregulation, farm bills, and economic growth | Supportssupports raising minimum wage and reversing 2025 tax cuts |
| Healthcare | Supportssupports MAHA movement, rural hospital funding, and oversight | Supportssupports ACA subsidies and strengthening Medicaid and Medicare |
| Abortion and social issues | Opposesopposes DEI, supports banning transgender athletes in school sports | Supportssupports abortion access and codifying Roe v. Wade |
| Democracy and elections | Mixedsupports SAVE Act, faced scrutiny for STOCK Act violations | Supportssupports national gerrymandering ban and voter ID requirements |
| Immigration and border | Supportssupports Secure the Border Act and judicial venue reform | Supportssupports border security and path to citizenship |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supportssupports decoupling national security from China, restricting imports | Opposesopposes U.S. military conflict with Iran |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 38.2% | 60.2% | R+22.0 | 66.3% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2023 | Governor | 25.9% | 51.6% | R+25.6 | 36.3% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 39.9% | 58.5% | R+18.6 | 69.5% |