U.S. Senate (MA)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Ed Markey 99%, John Deaton 2%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Ed Markey is the sitting senator running for reelection against Republican challenger John Deaton.
- The state heavily favors Democrats, who won the 2024 presidential election here with over 61 percent of the vote.
- Markey leads by a wide margin in fundraising and polling, supported by a broad coalition of labor and progressive groups.
Can they win this race
Ed Markey's overwhelming financial lead, institutional backing, and the state's deep Democratic history make his reelection highly probable against a challenger who lacks clear path to victory.
Who's lining up behind each side
Markey’s coalition of established labor and progressive groups is better positioned for high-turnout mobilization than Deaton’s reliance on third-party ground operations.
What could go wrong
John Deaton’s history of legal issues and past electoral defeat presents a more significant hurdle to gaining voter trust than the single ethics finding against Markey.
Who fits the moment
Ed Markey’s progressive platform aligns far more closely with the consistent Democratic voting history of Massachusetts than John Deaton’s attempts to appeal to moderate independents.
Money
Excludes $1,288,010.38 from 7,769 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $117,478.21 from 378 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Supports middle-class focus, labor rights, and taxing the wealthy.
focuses on affordability, housing development, and reducing inflation pressures
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| Issue | Ed Markey | John Deaton |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | SupportsSupports middle-class focus, labor rights, and taxing the wealthy. | Supportsfocuses on affordability, housing development, and reducing inflation pressures |
| Healthcare | SupportsSupports Medicare for All and regulating private equity. | Supportsproposes breaking up major health insurance companies for affordability |
| Abortion and social issues | SupportsSupports abortion access, LGBTQ+ rights, and codifying protections. | Supportspro-choice; supports codifying abortion rights into federal law |
| Democracy and elections | SupportsSupports campaign finance reform and voting access expansion. | Mixedindependent-minded; rejects party labels and Donald Trump's candidacy |
| Immigration and border | SupportsSupports abolishing ICE and protecting TPS status. | Supportssupports border security, ICE reform, and legal pathways to citizenship |
| Foreign policy and defense | SupportsOpposes unauthorized military action; supports nuclear non-proliferation. | Opposesskeptical of foreign aid; demands clear national interest justification |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 61.2% | 36.0% | D+25.2 | 68.3% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 63.7% | 34.6% | D+29.2 | 51.4% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 65.6% | 32.1% | D+33.5 | 76.0% |