U.S. Senate (MN)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Peggy Flanagan 90%, Michele Tafoya 11%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Minnesota's U.S. Senate seat is open following the retirement of Senator Tina Smith.
- Democratic candidate Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya are running in a competitive race that recent polls show is tied.
- Flanagan is a progressive Lieutenant Governor, while Tafoya is a political outsider and former sports broadcaster.
Can they win this race
The candidates are currently tied despite Minnesota's history of favoring Democratic candidates in federal elections, suggesting that the race is a true toss-up.
Who's lining up behind each side
Flanagan's extensive ground operation and broad institutional support provide a more reliable path to turning out her base than Tafoya's more limited organizational footprint.
What could go wrong
Flanagan's persistent association with state government fraud allegations is the most significant vulnerability because it allows opponents to question her executive experience directly.
Who fits the moment
Flanagan's progressive profile is a better fit for Minnesota's recent voting patterns, though Tafoya's moderate-leaning platform may attract voters dissatisfied with the current status quo.
Money
Excludes $1,695,445.58 from 11,651 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $1,621,152.01 from 10,403 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
supports $17 minimum wage, PRO Act, and universal childcare
Trump-aligned economic policies and tax cuts
1 of 6
| Issue | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportssupports $17 minimum wage, PRO Act, and universal childcare | SupportsTrump-aligned economic policies and tax cuts |
| Healthcare | Supportsadvocates for Medicare for All and banning prior authorization | Supportscombating bureaucrats and price-gougers to reduce costs |
| Abortion and social issues | Supportsadvocates for abortion access and federal reproductive freedom protections | Supportspro-choice up to 12 weeks of pregnancy |
| Democracy and elections | Supportsrefuses corporate PAC money; emphasizes grassroots DFL endorsement process | Supportspolitical outsider running against establishment politicians |
| Immigration and border | Opposesadvocates dismantling ICE and pathway to citizenship for immigrants | Supportsdeporting criminal noncitizens and law enforcement cooperation |
| Foreign policy and defense | Opposesopposes Iran war; calls for Israel-Palestine ceasefire and aid | Supportsleverage-based approach without ground troops |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 50.9% | 46.7% | D+4.2 | 76.3% |
| 2024 | House | 50.2% | 49.3% | D+0.9 | 76.3% |
| 2022 | Governor | 52.0% | 45.0% | D+7.0 | 61.0% |
| 2022 | House | 50.1% | 48.1% | D+2.0 | 61.0% |
| 2020 | President | 52.4% | 45.3% | D+7.1 | 80.0% |