U.S. Senate (MT)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
13 days until the next FEC filing deadline.
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Seth Bodnar 8%, Kurt Alme 91%.
The race in 60 seconds
- The Montana Senate race is for an open seat that was previously held by a Republican.
- Republican Kurt Alme has secured high-profile endorsements from Donald Trump and other state party leaders.
- Independent candidate Seth Bodnar has raised more money than Alme but faces the challenge of a state that strongly favors Republicans.
Can they win this race
Kurt Alme is strongly positioned to win because his massive political backing and the state's reliable Republican voting patterns outweigh Seth Bodnar's fundraising lead.
Who's lining up behind each side
Kurt Alme has a more effective mobilization advantage because his elite endorsements and heavy grassroots investment align directly with the state's Republican base.
What could go wrong
The criminal investigation into Seth Bodnar’s campaign poses a greater threat than Kurt Alme's past organizational questions, as it creates a direct risk of disqualifying negative media coverage.
Who fits the moment
Kurt Alme’s established conservative profile is a better fit for a state that has consistently delivered large margins for Republican candidates over the last several election cycles.
Money
Excludes $430,367.23 from 359 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $1,345,934.72 from 1,493 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
supports reducing deficit spending to lower inflation and taxes
opposes tariffs; supports housing affordability and debt reduction
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| Issue | Kurt Alme | Seth Bodnar |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportssupports reducing deficit spending to lower inflation and taxes | Opposesopposes tariffs; supports housing affordability and debt reduction |
| Healthcare | Supportssupports price transparency to increase competition and lower costs | Supportsdefends Medicaid expansion and rural hospital funding |
| Abortion and social issues | Supportssupports conservative social policies and faith-based conscience rights | Supportssupports reproductive freedom; opposes government interference |
| Democracy and elections | SupportsRepublican nominee endorsed by Donald Trump and Steve Daines | Supportssupports electoral reform, open primaries, and ending dark money |
| Immigration and border | Supportssupports border security and dismantling drug cartels | Supportssupports border security and legal immigration pathways |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supportssupports Trump's Iran policy and executive military authority | Opposescriticizes Iran conflict; supports Congressional war powers authority |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 38.5% | 58.4% | R+19.9 | 76.6% |
| 2024 | House | 39.6% | 58.5% | R+18.9 | 76.6% |
| 2022 | Governor | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | House | 34.2% | 52.9% | R+18.6 | 53.2% |
| 2020 | President | 40.5% | 56.9% | R+16.4 | 81.3% |