U.S. Senate (NC)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Roy Cooper 94%, Michael Whatley 6%.
The race in 60 seconds
- The North Carolina Senate race to replace the retiring incumbent is a top-tier contest that will determine control of the chamber.
- Roy Cooper, a former two-term governor, currently leads Michael Whatley in both fundraising and independent voter polling.
- Michael Whatley, a former RNC chair and political insider, has tied his campaign closely to Donald Trump's movement.
Can they win this race
Despite the slight Republican advantage in the state, the combination of a large fundraising gap and trailing poll numbers makes it unlikely for Michael Whatley to overcome Roy Cooper's lead.
Who's lining up behind each side
Roy Cooper's institutional backing is more effective because his campaign combines substantial PAC support with active, direct-to-voter mobilization efforts.
What could go wrong
Michael Whatley’s multiple allegations of misconduct and criminal associations represent the most volatile risk that could erode his standing with undecided voters.
Who fits the moment
Roy Cooper’s profile as a centrist pragmatist better aligns with the state’s closely divided electorate than Whatley’s strictly partisan identity.
Money
Excludes $4,357,817.25 from 90,879 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $15,316,554.43 from 66,634 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
supports tax cuts, deregulation, and eliminating taxes on tips
focuses on reducing consumer costs and utility rates
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| Issue | Michael Whatley | Roy Cooper |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportssupports tax cuts, deregulation, and eliminating taxes on tips | Supportsfocuses on reducing consumer costs and utility rates |
| Healthcare | Opposessupports Medicaid cuts and market-based healthcare alternatives | Supportssupports Medicaid expansion and lowering healthcare costs |
| Abortion and social issues | Supportssupports abortion restrictions and transgender sports bans | Opposesopposes abortion restrictions; vetoed measures as governor |
| Democracy and elections | Avoidspolitical newcomer with low name recognition and polling deficit | Supportssupports campaign finance reform and voting access protections |
| Immigration and border | Supportssupports mass deportation and strict border security enforcement | Mixedsupports border security while opposing local ICE mandates |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supportssupports military action to prevent Iranian nuclear capability | Supportsadvocates ending war in Iran to lower energy costs |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 48.4% | 51.6% | R+3.2 | 73.7% |
| 2024 | House | 42.8% | 52.8% | R+10.0 | 73.7% |
| 2024 | Governor | 54.9% | 40.1% | D+14.8 | 73.7% |
| 2022 | House | 47.7% | 52.0% | R+4.3 | 47.5% |
| 2020 | President | 49.3% | 50.7% | R+1.4 | 75.3% |