U.S. Senate (NE)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
13 days until the next FEC filing deadline.
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Dan Osborn 27%, Pete Ricketts 73%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts faces independent challenger Dan Osborn in a contest that polling suggests is unusually close.
- Ricketts, a former governor, leans on his established political resume and support from influential agricultural and law enforcement groups.
- Osborn, a former union leader, is running a populist campaign backed by substantial outside spending and a focus on grassroots organizing across the state.
Can they win this race
While the challenger's spending and polling strength show an unprecedented effort, the incumbent's significant fundraising lead and the state's reliable Republican voting history make a victory for the challenger unlikely.
Who's lining up behind each side
Osborn's aggressive, ground-up organizational strategy is more likely to mobilize new voters, while Ricketts relies on traditional establishment endorsements that may struggle to energize the electorate.
What could go wrong
Osborn's disconnect between his populist messaging and his reliance on national party funding is the most significant vulnerability because it risks undermining his core appeal to independent voters.
Who fits the moment
Ricketts better aligns with the state's demonstrated preference for conservative governance, whereas Osborn’s coalition requires a massive shift in voter behavior that is historically unsupported in this district.
Money
Excludes $724,223.8 from 1,345 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $1,664,628.84 from 9,028 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Supports tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal restraint.
populist; opposes corporate monopolies and tax cuts for billionaires
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| Issue | Pete Ricketts | Dan Osborn |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | SupportsSupports tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal restraint. | Opposespopulist; opposes corporate monopolies and tax cuts for billionaires |
| Healthcare | OpposesOpposes ACA; supports HSAs and Medicaid work requirements. | Supportssupports rural hospital funding; opposes healthcare monopolies |
| Abortion and social issues | SupportsSupports total ban without exceptions for rape or incest. | Supportssupports codifying Roe; opposes federal abortion bans |
| Democracy and elections | SupportsSelf-funded incumbent; attacks opponent as 'Democrat Dan'. | Supportsindependent; refuses to caucus with either party |
| Immigration and border | SupportsAdvocates strict border security and enforcement. | Mixedsupports border security; mixed on wall effectiveness |
| Foreign policy and defense | SupportsAdvocates aggressive posture toward China, Russia, and Iran. | Opposesanti-interventionist; opposes endless wars and military overreach |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 39.7% | 60.3% | R+20.6 | 73.9% |
| 2024 | House | 36.4% | 63.6% | R+27.2 | 73.9% |
| 2022 | Governor | 36.0% | 59.2% | R+23.2 | 54.9% |
| 2022 | House | 35.3% | 62.7% | R+27.4 | 54.9% |
| 2020 | President | 40.3% | 59.7% | R+19.4 | 76.3% |