U.S. Senate (NH)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Chris Pappas 87%, John E. Sununu 13%.
The race in 60 seconds
- The New Hampshire Senate seat is open and currently rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
- The Republican candidate, former Senator John E. Sununu, is mounting a challenge against four-term Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas.
- The race is characterized by significant national party spending and intense competition for swing voters.
Can they win this race
Despite trailing significantly in total money raised, the Republican candidate is positioned to win because the incumbent party's deep unpopularity and the state's narrow margins outweigh his fundraising disadvantage.
Who's lining up behind each side
The Republican candidate’s massive infusion of outside institutional money and dedicated grassroots ground game provide a clearer path to mobilizing voters than the Democratic candidate's defensive posture.
What could go wrong
The Republican candidate’s lack of recent electoral experience and lingering ethics concerns present a higher risk of self-inflicted damage than the policy-based friction faced by the Democrat.
Who fits the moment
The Democratic candidate’s pragmatic, moderate profile is better suited to maintaining the party's narrow advantage in a state that has consistently supported Democratic presidential candidates.
Money
Excludes $1,112,036.46 from 8,824 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $4,972,305.14 from 38,797 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
opposes middle-class tax hikes, focuses on affordability
tax cuts for working families, opposes corporate interests
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| Issue | John E. Sununu | Chris Pappas |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Opposesopposes middle-class tax hikes, focuses on affordability | Supportstax cuts for working families, opposes corporate interests |
| Healthcare | Supportssupports association health plans and health savings accounts | Supportsstrengthening ACA, defending Medicare/Medicaid, lowering drug costs |
| Abortion and social issues | Opposespro-life, supports bans on partial-birth abortion | Supportscodifying abortion rights into federal law |
| Democracy and elections | Supportsrunning to lower political temperature and get things done | Mixedacknowledges race is highly competitive and close |
| Immigration and border | Opposesopposes sanctuary cities, supports English as official language | Supportscomprehensive reform, pathway to citizenship, opposes mass deportation |
| Foreign policy and defense | Mixedopposes ground troops in Iran, supports Ukraine aid | Mixedcritical of Netanyahu, supports reset of U.S.-Israel relations |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 51.3% | 47.9% | D+3.4 | 76.0% |
| 2024 | House | 53.5% | 46.5% | D+7.0 | 76.0% |
| 2022 | Governor | 41.5% | 57.0% | R+15.5 | 67.6% |
| 2022 | House | 54.9% | 45.0% | D+9.9 | 67.6% |
| 2020 | President | 53.8% | 45.4% | D+8.4 | 73.5% |