U.S. Senate (NM)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Ben Ray Luján 99%, Larry E. Marker 2%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Senator Ben Ray Luján is seeking re-election against challenger Larry E. Marker.
- The incumbent holds a massive financial lead, having raised over $8 million compared to his opponent's $33,525.
- New Mexico has consistently supported Democratic presidential candidates, giving them over 50 percent of the vote in the last two elections.
Can they win this race
The immense financial and institutional advantages held by Ben Ray Luján make his victory practically guaranteed in a state that has consistently favored his party.
Who's lining up behind each side
Ben Ray Luján possesses a much stronger coalition because his institutional support and established backing are actual, while his opponent's support remains largely symbolic and lacks necessary resources.
What could go wrong
The repeated inability of Larry E. Marker to win previous elections is his most critical vulnerability, as it suggests a consistent lack of appeal to the state's voters.
Who fits the moment
Ben Ray Luján's conventional legislative profile remains a much tighter fit for the state's durable preference for Democratic candidates than Larry E. Marker's hard-right populist platform.
Money
Excludes $919,923.76 from 20,452 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $10,500 from 9 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
supports middle-class tax relief and industrial investment
prioritizes Social Security solvency and reducing federal debt
1 of 6
| Issue | Ben Ray Luján | Larry E. Marker |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportssupports middle-class tax relief and industrial investment | Supportsprioritizes Social Security solvency and reducing federal debt |
| Healthcare | Supportssupports ACA, public option, and Medicaid expansion | Avoidsfocuses on goal-setting over partisan political messaging |
| Abortion and social issues | Supportssupports codifying Roe v. Wade and Equality Act protections | Opposesopposes abortion and filed lawsuit to halt procedures |
| Democracy and elections | Supportssupports voting rights expansion and filibuster reform | Supportswrite-in candidate who qualified for the general election |
| Immigration and border | Supportssupports border screening and pathway to citizenship for Dreamers | Supportsadvocates for total-security border approach and legal immigration reform |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supportssupports two-state solution and Iran nuclear deal diplomacy | Mixedsupports Trump policies but opposes unilateral war powers |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 52.9% | 47.1% | D+5.8 | 66.8% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 52.0% | 45.6% | D+6.4 | 52.4% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 55.1% | 44.9% | D+10.2 | 68.7% |