U.S. Senate (OK)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. N’Kiyla Thomas 2%, Kevin Hern 97%.
The race in 60 seconds
- This open Senate race features Republican Kevin Hern and Democrat N’Kiyla Thomas competing for a seat in a deeply Republican state.
- Kevin Hern has built a massive fundraising lead of over 174 to one compared to his opponent.
- The race was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent Senator to join the cabinet.
Can they win this race
Kevin Hern is virtually certain to win because the massive financial advantage and strong party alignment make it impossible for his opponent to overcome the state's deep Republican history.
Who's lining up behind each side
Kevin Hern’s campaign has far greater institutional and financial resources, giving him a decisive advantage in mobilizing voters compared to the limited support for his opponent.
What could go wrong
The allegations regarding Kevin Hern’s campaign loans and disclosures present a more significant hurdle, as his high-profile status invites greater public and media scrutiny.
Who fits the moment
Kevin Hern’s platform is a far better match for the state’s demonstrated conservative voting habits and preference for Republican leadership.
Money
Excludes $434,990.58 from 604 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $5,743 from 27 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
advocates for tax cuts, balanced budgets, and deregulation
supports living wage and increased taxes on high earners
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| Issue | Kevin Hern | N’Kiyla Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportsadvocates for tax cuts, balanced budgets, and deregulation | Supportssupports living wage and increased taxes on high earners |
| Healthcare | Opposesopposes ACA subsidies; advocates for free-market healthcare reform | Supportssupports Medicare for All and universal childcare |
| Abortion and social issues | Supportssponsored legislation to restrict chemical abortions | Supportssupports federal restoration of Roe v. Wade protections |
| Democracy and elections | Supportsvoted against 2020 certification; supports strict voter ID laws | Supportssupports grassroots funding and uncapping House seats |
| Immigration and border | Supportsprioritizes border security, deportations, and ending illegal immigration | Supportssupports abolishing ICE and ending qualified immunity |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supportsadvocates 'peace through strength'; prioritizes domestic interests over foreign aid | Opposesopposes defunding the Department of Defense |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 32.0% | 68.0% | R+36.0 | 64.4% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 41.8% | 55.5% | R+13.7 | 50.2% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 32.8% | 67.2% | R+34.4 | 69.3% |