U.S. Senate (OR)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Jeff Merkley 98%, David Brock Smith 2%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Jeff Merkley, an incumbent Democratic senator with a long record of progressive voting, is seeking re-election.
- His opponent is David Brock Smith, a Republican state senator who relies on support from rural families and conservative groups.
- Oregon has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002, and the state has consistently supported Democratic presidential candidates by wide margins.
Can they win this race
Jeff Merkley will retain this seat because Oregon voters have consistently supported Democratic candidates by large margins and the incumbent’s extreme financial dominance makes any meaningful challenge mathematically impossible.
Who's lining up behind each side
Jeff Merkley's institutional and financial backing is far more likely to convert into votes because his massive resource advantage allows for a superior reach to the electorate compared to his opponent's limited support.
What could go wrong
David Brock Smith’s lack of broad-based, corporate-aligned funding is his most significant vulnerability as it prevents him from building the infrastructure necessary to compete in a state-wide race.
Who fits the moment
Jeff Merkley’s progressive policy platform remains a much stronger match for the consistent, multi-cycle preference of Oregon voters for Democratic candidates.
Money
Excludes $1,520,479.18 from 19,141 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $42,996.62 from 50 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Supports pro-worker policies, housing affordability, and tax fairness.
opposes new taxes and climate-related cost increases
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| Issue | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | SupportsSupports pro-worker policies, housing affordability, and tax fairness. | Opposesopposes new taxes and climate-related cost increases |
| Healthcare | SupportsSupports Medicare for All and reducing drug costs. | Supportslinks homelessness to drug and mental-health treatment needs |
| Abortion and social issues | SupportsSupports racial justice, abolition amendment, and privacy rights. | Supportsendorsed by Oregon Right to Life PAC |
| Democracy and elections | SupportsSupports structural reforms to strengthen democracy and election integrity. | Supportsadvocates for election integrity and SAVE Act mandates |
| Immigration and border | SupportsSupports humane immigration reform and ending family separation. | Opposesopposes sanctuary state policy; supports criminal deportations |
| Foreign policy and defense | SupportsSupports human rights, diplomacy, and nuclear non-proliferation. | Not enough evidence |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 57.7% | 42.3% | D+15.4 | 75.0% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 47.0% | 43.5% | D+3.4 | 66.9% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 58.4% | 41.6% | D+16.8 | 82.0% |