U.S. Senate (RI)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
13 days until the next FEC filing deadline.
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Jack Reed 99%, Raymond McKay 2%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Senator Jack Reed is an incumbent seeking re-election against challenger Raymond McKay in a state that consistently supports Democratic candidates.
- Polls show the incumbent holding a substantial lead over the challenger.
- The incumbent has a massive financial advantage, having raised 25 times more money than the challenger.
Can they win this race
The massive gap in fundraising and current polling, combined with a history of Democratic presidential margins over 57 percent, makes a victory for the challenger impossible.
Who's lining up behind each side
The absence of significant outside institutional investment confirms that neither campaign is relying on external mobilization, leaving the incumbent’s established reach as the dominant force.
What could go wrong
Senator Reed’s lack of exposure to recent, high-stakes primary contests is his most significant vulnerability should a last-minute scandal gain traction.
Who fits the moment
Senator Reed’s experienced legislative profile is far more aligned with the established preferences of this reliably Democratic state than the challenger’s outsider platform.
Money
Excludes $521,130 from 564 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $82,762.05 from 1,775 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Supports federal investment, opposes Trump-era tax/budget policies.
reducing government spending and opposing tax increases
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| Issue | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | SupportsSupports federal investment, opposes Trump-era tax/budget policies. | Opposesreducing government spending and opposing tax increases |
| Healthcare | SupportsSupports ACA expansion, Medicaid, and lower costs. | Opposesopposing federal IVF mandates; supporting mental health community |
| Abortion and social issues | SupportsSupports social justice, gun safety, and community security. | Supportsrestricting women's sports to biological women |
| Democracy and elections | SupportsDefends election integrity, opposes SAVE Act centralization. | OpposesRepublican challenger running in a Solid D state |
| Immigration and border | SupportsSupports reform, opposes family separation and ICE abuses. | Supportssecuring the border and prioritizing American interests |
| Foreign policy and defense | SupportsPrioritizes military readiness, oversight, and alliance solidarity. | Supportsdiplomatic solutions over pre-emptive strikes on Iran |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 57.1% | 42.9% | D+14.2 | 63.5% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 57.9% | 38.9% | D+19.1 | — |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 60.9% | 39.1% | D+21.8 | 67.6% |