U.S. Senate (SD)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
13 days until the next FEC filing deadline.
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Brian Bengs 9%, Mike Rounds 92%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Mike Rounds is seeking re-election against independent challenger Brian Bengs in a state that strongly favors the Republican party.
- The incumbent holds a massive fundraising lead of over four million dollars compared to less than one million raised by the challenger.
- Rounds is a long-serving senator with the backing of Donald Trump and multiple outside political groups.
Can they win this race
Despite significant fundraising and endorsement advantages, the incumbent's path remains secure because the state's deep Republican preference creates a gap that an independent challenger cannot bridge.
Who's lining up behind each side
The incumbent's professional financial and political machine provides a distinct advantage in converting organizational strength into turnout compared to the challenger's lack of institutional infrastructure.
What could go wrong
The incumbent’s disclosure violation is a settled past issue, whereas the challenger’s public contradiction regarding his own fundraising platform presents a recurring credibility risk for voters.
Who fits the moment
The incumbent’s focus on established institutional influence and defense priorities better aligns with the preferences of a state that consistently produces lopsided double-digit margins for his party.
Money
Excludes $172,490.28 from 518 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $166,277.53 from 1,509 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Supports tax cuts, balanced budgets, and agricultural subsidies.
advocates progressive taxation and breaking up corporate monopolies
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| Issue | Mike Rounds | Brian Bengs |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | SupportsSupports tax cuts, balanced budgets, and agricultural subsidies. | Supportsadvocates progressive taxation and breaking up corporate monopolies |
| Healthcare | OpposesSupports veteran health initiatives; opposes ACA expansion. | Supportsproposes public option and lowering Medicare eligibility age |
| Abortion and social issues | SupportsPro-life; supports federal bans and life-at-conception legislation. | Supportssupports abortion access and codifying Roe v. Wade |
| Democracy and elections | MixedDefended 2020 election results; declined recent public debates. | Supportsprioritizes campaign finance reform and anti-corruption measures |
| Immigration and border | SupportsSupports increased border security and ICE funding. | Supportscombines border security with expanded legal immigration pathways |
| Foreign policy and defense | SupportsSupports military funding, deterrence, and B-21 program. | Supportsadvocates for congressional war authorization and avoiding unnecessary intervention |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 34.2% | 63.4% | R+29.2 | 69.9% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 35.2% | 62.0% | R+26.8 | 59.4% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 35.6% | 61.8% | R+26.2 | 73.9% |