U.S. Senate (TN)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
13 days until the next FEC filing deadline.
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Marquita Bradshaw 3%, Bill Hagerty 98%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty is running for reelection against Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw in Tennessee.
- Tennessee is a reliably Republican state, having supported the Republican candidate by over 31 percentage points in the most recent gubernatorial election.
- Hagerty holds a significant fundraising lead, having raised over $15 million compared to Bradshaw's $2,257.
Can they win this race
The enormous financial advantage and deep-seated partisan preference of the electorate make the incumbent's path to victory nearly certain compared to the challenger's lack of funding.
Who's lining up behind each side
Bill Hagerty's institutional and financial support will translate into significantly higher voter mobilization and visibility than the challenger's grassroots-only approach.
What could go wrong
Neither candidate faces a material vulnerability likely to change the election outcome, as both candidates possess only unresolved, minor procedural issues.
Who fits the moment
Bill Hagerty’s conservative platform aligns closely with the state's established voting patterns, while Bradshaw’s progressive ideology remains outside the political mainstream of the electorate.
Money
Excludes $1,576,701.33 from 64,509 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Prioritizes deregulation, tax cuts, and energy independence.
wealth tax, federal spending, anti-corporate accountability
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| Issue | Bill Hagerty | Marquita Bradshaw |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | SupportsPrioritizes deregulation, tax cuts, and energy independence. | Supportswealth tax, federal spending, anti-corporate accountability |
| Healthcare | OpposesOpposes ACA and government mandates; favors individual choice. | SupportsMedicare for All; universal coverage; no medical bankruptcy |
| Abortion and social issues | SupportsPro-life; supports restrictions and conservative social values. | Supportscodifying Roe; racial and social justice intersectionality |
| Democracy and elections | OpposesOpposes federalization; emphasizes election integrity and legal challenges. | Supportsfair voting, independent redistricting, full vote count |
| Immigration and border | SupportsSupports border wall, tariffs, and ending illegal immigration. | SupportsDACA protections; pathway to citizenship |
| Foreign policy and defense | SupportsHardline on China; strong support for Israel and alliances. | Not enough evidence |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 34.5% | 64.2% | R+29.7 | 64.0% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 32.9% | 64.9% | R+32.0 | 38.6% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 37.5% | 60.7% | R+23.2 | 69.3% |