U.S. Senate (VA)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
13 days until the next FEC filing deadline.
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Mark Warner 98%, Bert Mizusawa 2%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Three-term incumbent Mark Warner is defending his seat against Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa.
- Polling shows Warner with a significant lead, supported by a massive 60-to-one fundraising advantage.
- Warner is positioning his campaign around economic stability and technology regulation, while Mizusawa emphasizes national security and an America First agenda.
Can they win this race
Mark Warner’s overwhelming financial advantage and deep roots in the state make it extremely difficult for Bert Mizusawa to overcome the 18-point gap currently shown in polling.
Who's lining up behind each side
Warner’s institutional and financial support provides him with a decisive, ready-to-activate organizational advantage over his opponent.
What could go wrong
Warner’s refusal to debate creates an accountability vulnerability that could potentially disrupt his attempt to coast to a final term.
Who fits the moment
Warner’s focus on economic and technological stability is more closely aligned with the recent consistent Democratic voting patterns of the Virginia electorate.
Money
Excludes $4,104,096.35 from 33,542 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $43,784.18 from 111 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
advocates incremental economic shifts over radical transformation
supports tax simplification and debt reduction
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| Issue | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportsadvocates incremental economic shifts over radical transformation | Supportssupports tax simplification and debt reduction |
| Healthcare | Supportsadvocates for universal healthcare coverage and affordability reforms | Opposesadvocates for privatized, free-market healthcare system |
| Abortion and social issues | Supportssupports abortion access and codification of reproductive rights | Supportssupports Second Amendment rights |
| Democracy and elections | Avoidsdeclined to participate in the only scheduled 2026 debate | Supportsprioritizes election integrity and debates |
| Immigration and border | Supportssupports comprehensive reform, pathway to citizenship, and ICE accountability | Supportssupports border security and opposes illegal immigration paths |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supportsviews China, Russia, Iran as serious strategic competitors | Supportsprioritizes national security and military readiness |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 51.8% | 46.0% | D+5.8 | 70.5% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2025 | Governor | 51.2% | 48.6% | D+2.6 | 54.2% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 54.1% | 44.0% | D+10.1 | 75.1% |