U.S. Senate (WY)
Open seat · 2026 cycle
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. James Byrd 3%, Harriet Hageman 97%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Wyoming is a reliably Republican state where voters have historically supported conservative candidates by massive margins.
- Harriet Hageman is a Trump-aligned congresswoman who has secured significant institutional support and funding.
- James Byrd is a moderate Democrat running with minimal campaign funds and no reported outside support.
Can they win this race
James Byrd’s massive fundraising disadvantage and lack of party support make it impossible for him to overcome the state’s deeply entrenched preference for Republican candidates.
Who's lining up behind each side
Hageman’s institutional endorsements and extensive ground presence guarantee a mobilized voter base that Byrd lacks the resources to replicate.
What could go wrong
Byrd’s established pattern of losing elections poses a greater barrier to his viability than any specific vulnerability currently attached to Hageman.
Who fits the moment
Hageman’s hard-right alignment is a much stronger match for the state’s overwhelming conservative preference than Byrd’s moderate, outsider-focused pitch.
Money
Excludes $7,355 from 50 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $738,046.76 from 14,718 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
supports energy diversification and property tax relief
advocates for tax cuts and increased domestic energy production
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| Issue | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportssupports energy diversification and property tax relief | Supportsadvocates for tax cuts and increased domestic energy production |
| Healthcare | Supportssupports rural healthcare funding and drug cost caps | Opposesopposes ACA; prioritizes rural healthcare access for Wyoming residents |
| Abortion and social issues | Supportssupports gun rights with emphasis on personal responsibility | Supportsadvocates for sanctity of life and parental rights in education |
| Democracy and elections | Supportsadvocates for checks and balances and judiciary reform | Supportsasserts 2020 election was rigged; emphasizes election integrity programs |
| Immigration and border | Supportssupports comprehensive reform and opposes family separation | Supportssupports border wall, increased ICE agents, and deportation efforts |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supportsprioritizes domestic producers and redirecting conflict spending | Supportssupports military action against Iran; advocates defunding certain UN agencies |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 25.8% | 71.6% | R+45.8 | 59.7% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 15.8% | 74.1% | R+58.3 | 66.6% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 26.6% | 69.9% | R+43.4 | 62.6% |