U.S. Senate (ID)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
13 days until the next FEC filing deadline.
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Todd Achilles 7%, Jim Risch 93%.
The race in 60 seconds
- Senator Jim Risch is seeking his fourth term representing Idaho against independent challenger Todd Achilles.
- The state consistently votes for Republicans by overwhelming margins, including a 40.23 percentage point win in the 2022 governor's race.
- Jim Risch holds a significant fundraising lead of roughly six to one over Todd Achilles.
Can they win this race
The massive divide between the candidates' financial resources and the state's historical preference for Republicans makes the incumbent's path to reelection extremely secure.
Who's lining up behind each side
The incumbent’s alignment with national party leadership is a more reliable predictor of victory than a grassroots volunteer effort in such a heavily partisan state.
What could go wrong
The incumbent's history of campaign finance violations is more likely to impact voters because it involves an official legal penalty rather than an unsubstantiated allegation.
Who fits the moment
Jim Risch’s established profile fits the state’s deeply conservative structure far better than the populist reform agenda offered by Todd Achilles.
Money
Excludes $429,150.79 from 946 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $256,576.51 from 387 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
Advocates for spending restraint and balanced budgets.
advocates for fair competition and middle-class economic relief
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| Issue | Jim Risch | Todd Achilles |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | OpposesAdvocates for spending restraint and balanced budgets. | Supportsadvocates for fair competition and middle-class economic relief |
| Healthcare | OpposesAdvocates for private-sector healthcare; opposes government-owned entities. | Supportsadvocates for reforming ACA and strengthening public options |
| Abortion and social issues | SupportsConsistent, vocal anti-abortion supporter; A+ rating from SBA. | Supportssupports reproductive access and Idaho's abortion ballot initiative |
| Democracy and elections | AvoidsAvoids public town halls; relies on party-insider strategy. | Supportsadvocates for independent, reform-focused, and anti-corruption leadership |
| Immigration and border | SupportsSupports border wall; opposes path to citizenship. | Supportssupports border security and legal pathways to citizenship |
| Foreign policy and defense | SupportsBalances 'America First' with assertive global leadership. | Opposesadvocates for ending endless wars and reasserting war powers |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 30.4% | 66.9% | R+36.5 | 77.8% |
| 2024 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2022 | Governor | 20.3% | 60.5% | R+40.2 | 57.2% |
| 2022 | House | Not enough evidence | |||
| 2020 | President | 33.1% | 63.8% | R+30.8 | 81.2% |