U.S. Senate (KS)
Incumbent defending · 2026 cycle
13 days until the next FEC filing deadline.
Market
Daily Kalshi price history
Daily Kalshi price history. Adam Hamilton 31%, Roger Marshall 70%.
The race in 60 seconds
- This Kansas Senate race features incumbent Republican Roger Marshall against challenger Adam Hamilton, a mainstream pastor.
- Recent polling shows a competitive race between the two candidates despite Kansas historically favoring Republicans by a wide margin.
- Marshall relies on his committee seniority and support from national party leaders to defend his seat.
Can they win this race
Despite the incumbent's fundraising lead and national party backing, the narrow polling lead and the state's deep Republican history suggest this race is a true toss-up.
Who's lining up behind each side
Roger Marshall’s established political network likely provides more reliable turnout strength than Hamilton’s reliance on split-ticket support and diverse, external donor interests.
What could go wrong
Roger Marshall’s legal and ethics history is the more significant liability, as it provides a tangible target for voters already frustrated with national party politics.
Who fits the moment
While the incumbent aligns with the state's long-term voting record, Hamilton’s moderate profile offers a potential bridge for the coalition needed to overcome the Republican advantage.
Money
Excludes $477,201.22 from 1,805 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Excludes $1,881,611.93 from 2,843 donors who listed no occupation, or listed retired or not employed.
Key contrasts
supports tax credits and permanent small business deductions
focuses on affordability, opposes tariffs, and targets cost-of-living issues
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| Issue | Roger Marshall | Adam Hamilton |
|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supportssupports tax credits and permanent small business deductions | Supportsfocuses on affordability, opposes tariffs, and targets cost-of-living issues |
| Healthcare | Opposesconsistently advocates for the repeal of the ACA | Supportssupports healthcare as a right; advocates capping medical debt |
| Abortion and social issues | Opposesopposes all abortion, including rape and incest cases | Supportssupports abortion access and codifying contraception into law |
| Democracy and elections | Opposesdisputed 2020 election results; voted against certification | Mixedindependent-minded Democrat; rejects national party leadership and surrogates |
| Immigration and border | Supportsprioritizes border security and enforcement over foreign aid | Mixedsupports border security, H-2A reform, and ICE reform |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supportsprioritizes border security over foreign aid spending | Mixedopposes war in Iran; supports Israel while criticizing Netanyahu |
Electoral history
| Cycle | Race | Dem | Rep | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | President | 40.8% | 59.2% | R+18.4 | 67.8% |
| 2024 | House | 40.3% | 57.4% | R+17.1 | 67.8% |
| 2022 | Governor | 49.5% | 47.3% | D+2.2 | 51.1% |
| 2022 | House | 42.5% | 56.9% | R+14.4 | 51.1% |
| 2020 | President | 41.8% | 58.2% | R+16.4 | 70.9% |