Roger Marshall
Republican · Incumbent · U.S. Senate (KS) · 2026
Junior U.S. Senator from Kansas and committee chair known as a staunch political ally of Donald Trump.
Before politics: President, Quivera Ranch, LLC, 2000-present Obstetrician/Gynecologist, Great Bend Regional Hospital Captain, United States Army Reserve
Their shot at this seat
Marshall faces an uphill battle to retain this seat because his sub-50% polling in a conservative-leaning state suggests he is failing to consolidate his party's traditional voters.
Who's behind them
Marshall’s institutional coalition remains intact and well-funded, though he relies heavily on traditional party alignments rather than broadening his base of support.
What could go wrong
While Marshall’s primary win suggests he has absorbed initial internal pressure, his history of ethical and legal controversies remains a clear, persistent liability.
Why they fit this seat
Marshall’s record aligns closely with the core priorities of his conservative base, even as it creates friction with voters seeking a different direction for the party.
Key contrasts
supports tax credits and permanent small business deductions
focuses on affordability, opposes tariffs, and targets cost-of-living issues
Not enough evidence on who this moves
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| Issue | Roger Marshall | Adam Hamilton | Who this moves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy and taxes | Supports supports tax credits and permanent small business deductions | Supports focuses on affordability, opposes tariffs, and targets cost-of-living issues | Not enough evidence |
| Healthcare | Opposes consistently advocates for the repeal of the ACA | Supports supports healthcare as a right; advocates capping medical debt | Not enough evidence |
| Abortion and social issues | Opposes opposes all abortion, including rape and incest cases | Supports supports abortion access and codifying contraception into law | Not enough evidence |
| Democracy and elections | Opposes disputed 2020 election results; voted against certification | Mixed independent-minded Democrat; rejects national party leadership and surrogates | Voters concerned with election integrity and the incumbent's alignment with Donald Trump. |
| Immigration and border | Supports prioritizes border security and enforcement over foreign aid | Mixed supports border security, H-2A reform, and ICE reform | Not enough evidence |
| Foreign policy and defense | Supports prioritizes border security over foreign aid spending | Mixed opposes war in Iran; supports Israel while criticizing Netanyahu | Not enough evidence |
Who has more standing to be believed
| Credibility axis | Roger Marshall | Adam Hamilton |
|---|---|---|
Insider knowledge | Multiple terms in federal office, no committee gavel, chair, or chamber leadership post. | Never held public office. |
Message discipline | Reversals and contradictions drew press coverage as flip-flops, with no resulting apology or staffing change. | Multiple documented reversals on party registration and policy positions. |
Moral legitimacy | Same-party rival Arch Naramore publicly backed the Democratic opponent. | Endorsed by party and cross-aisle figures like Bill Graves. |
Scandal resilience | Multiple confirmed formal events, including STOCK Act violations and civil lawsuits, with no criminal conviction. | Allegations of church resource misuse and abuse cover-up. |
Pressure absorption | Won a contested primary against a credible, actively-campaigning challenger. | Won contested primary; race rating shifted to Lean R. |
Multiple terms in federal office, no committee gavel, chair, or chamber leadership post.
Never held public office.
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Network
Endorsements and money spent against
National endorsements
- Donald Trump
- Senate Conservatives Fund
Signals against
The case they'd make
Roger Marshall presents himself as a staunch ally of Donald Trump, positioning his platform to appeal directly to voters focused on election integrity. By leveraging these high-profile national endorsements, he seeks to solidify support among conservative Kansans who prioritize ideological alignment. This strategy centers his campaign on maintaining the loyalty of a base deeply invested in the current direction of the national party.